NERD — Retirement Strategy

Total Assets Today

—

across all accounts

Years to Retire

—

at age 60

Projected at 60

—

pre-withdrawals

ACA MAGI Target

$70K

sweet spot for subsidies

Asset Allocation Today

Portfolio Growth to Age 65

Income Strategy

Layer 1: Trad. IRATaxable · ACA anchor

Layer 2: Roth IRATax-free gap fill

Layer 3: HSAMedical only

Layer 4: BTCStrategic / optional

Bridge Window 60→65

IRA draws (8yr)~$560K

Roth usage (8yr)~$320K

HSA usage (8yr)~$120K

Total bridge cost~$1.0M

Healthcare Plan

ACA premiums/mo$800–$1,500

Out-of-pocket/yr$2K–$6K

Total annual est.$15K–$25K

At 65 (Medicare)$5K–$10K/yr

Account Balances

Traditional IRA (Chuck + Jen combined) $

Roth IRA $

HSA $

BTC holdings (USD value today) $

Other brokerage / cash $

Growth Assumptions

Current age

IRA/Roth annual return (%)

7%

BTC annual growth (%)

20%

HSA annual return (%)

5%

Inflation rate (%)

3%

Monthly contributions until retirement $

Months until re-employed

3mo

IRA at 60

—

Roth at 60

—

HSA at 60

—

BTC at 60

—

MAGI Target Simulator

IRA withdrawal this year $

Other taxable income (SSI, dividends, etc.) $

Roth conversion this year $

Your MAGI

—

$0$60K sweet spot$90K cliff$150K+

ACA Status

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FPL 400% threshold (2025)~$60,240 (single) / $81,760 (family)

Premium subsidy cliff400% FPL

Roth withdrawals count?No — tax free

HSA withdrawals count?No — medical use

IRA withdrawals count?Yes — full MAGI

Annual ACA Income Plan (60–65)

Annual Spending Target

Target annual spending $

IRA withdrawal (taxable / ACA anchor) $

HSA (medical expenses) $

Other taxable income $

Income Layer Breakdown

8-Year Bridge — Account Drawdown

Conversion Settings

Annual Roth conversion amount $

IRA balance at 60 (auto-calculated) $

IRA withdrawal per year $

⚡ Converting $20K–$40K/year stays under ACA thresholds while reducing future RMDs. Conversions count as MAGI — stay in the $60–90K band.

10-Year Impact

IRA reduced by

—

less future RMD exposure

Roth balance grows to

—

tax-free pool

IRA vs Roth Balance Over Time (with conversions)

BTC Settings

Current BTC value $

Annual growth assumption (%)

20%

Years to project

10yr

Scenario Projections

Bear (0%/yr)

$225K

Base (20%/yr)

—

Bull (40%/yr)

—

Moon (60%/yr)

—

BTC is your wildcard — not your plan. Treat it as:
· Backup emergency fund
· Large purchase accelerator (lake house 🏡)
· Sell selectively to avoid MAGI spikes

BTC Growth Scenarios

Assumptions

Annual spend $

IRA draw/yr $

Roth draw/yr $

HSA draw/yr $

Roth conversion/yr $

Portfolio return % (post-retire)

SSI/mo at 67 $

Inflation %

Year-by-Year Table (Age 60 → 90)

Age	Year	IRA Balance	Roth Balance	HSA Balance	IRA Draw	Roth Draw	HSA Draw	MAGI	ACA?	Total Spend

Sequence of Returns Risk

A major downturn in the first 3–5 years of retirement is the #1 portfolio killer. Withdrawing during a down market locks in losses.

Mitigation:
· Keep 2–3 years of spending ($240–$360K) in cash/short-term bonds
· Draw from Roth first if market drops >20%
· Delay large IRA draws in bad years; use Roth buffer
· BTC only as reserve — never forced to sell

ACA Rule Changes

ACA subsidies could change in 2026 elections. Enhanced subsidies expire unless renewed.

Mitigation:
· Build $25K/yr healthcare cushion in cash reserves
· HSA funds cover worst-case out-of-pocket
· 8-year bridge ends at Medicare (65) — limited exposure window
· Flexibility to increase IRA draws if subsidies disappear

Inflation Risk

$120K today = $152K in 10 years at 3% inflation. Spending creep compounds fast.

Mitigation:
· Portfolio return (7%) > inflation (3%) = real growth
· Increase IRA draws gradually in later years
· Medicare at 65 removes healthcare inflation pressure
· BTC upside provides inflation hedge

Longevity Risk

Planning to 90 = 33 years of withdrawals. Portfolio must sustain the full bridge.

Mitigation:
· Roth conversions now = tax-free pool later
· SSI at 67 reduces portfolio pressure permanently
· BTC upside = long-tail cushion
· Lake house equity = real asset reserve

Monte Carlo Stress Test — Portfolio Survival Probability

      Simulated 500 scenarios with randomized annual returns (mean 7%, std dev 12%). Green = portfolio survives to 90. Red = depleted.
    