Retirement Dashboard
Chuck & Jen · Target retirement age 57 · $120K/yr lifestyle
Total Assets Today
—
across all accounts
Years to Retire
7
at age 57
Projected at 57
—
pre-withdrawals
ACA MAGI Target
$70K
sweet spot for subsidies
Asset Allocation Today
Portfolio Growth to Age 65
Income Strategy
Layer 1: Trad. IRATaxable · ACA anchor
Layer 2: Roth IRATax-free gap fill
Layer 3: HSAMedical only
Layer 4: BTCStrategic / optional
Bridge Window 57→65
IRA draws (8yr)~$560K
Roth usage (8yr)~$320K
HSA usage (8yr)~$120K
Total bridge cost~$1.0M
Healthcare Plan
ACA premiums/mo$800–$1,500
Out-of-pocket/yr$2K–$6K
Total annual est.$15K–$25K
At 65 (Medicare)$5K–$10K/yr
Asset Inputs
Set your current balances and growth assumptions
Account Balances
Growth Assumptions
7%
20%
5%
3%
3mo
IRA at 57
—
Roth at 57
—
HSA at 57
—
BTC at 57
—
ACA Optimization
Manage MAGI to maximize healthcare subsidies (ages 57–65)
MAGI Target Simulator
Your MAGI
—
$0$60K sweet spot$90K cliff$150K+
ACA Status
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FPL 400% threshold (2025)~$60,240 (single) / $81,760 (family)
Premium subsidy cliff400% FPL
Roth withdrawals count?No — tax free
HSA withdrawals count?No — medical use
IRA withdrawals count?Yes — full MAGI
Annual ACA Income Plan (57–65)
Withdrawal Layers
How to fund $120K/year from the right buckets in the right order
Annual Spending Target
Income Layer Breakdown
8-Year Bridge — Account Drawdown
Roth Conversion Strategy
Convert IRA → Roth during low-income years to reduce RMDs and future taxes
Conversion Settings
⚡ Converting $20K–$40K/year stays under ACA thresholds while reducing future RMDs. Conversions count as MAGI — stay in the $60–90K band.
10-Year Impact
IRA reduced by
—
less future RMD exposure
Roth balance grows to
—
tax-free pool
IRA vs Roth Balance Over Time (with conversions)
BTC Wildcard
Strategic Bitcoin position — optionality, not dependency
BTC Settings
20%
10yr
Scenario Projections
Bear (0%/yr)
$225K
Base (20%/yr)
—
Bull (40%/yr)
—
Moon (60%/yr)
—
BTC is your wildcard — not your plan. Treat it as:
· Backup emergency fund
· Large purchase accelerator (lake house 🏡)
· Sell selectively to avoid MAGI spikes
BTC Growth Scenarios
Year-by-Year Plan
Complete withdrawal model from age 57 → 90
Assumptions
Year-by-Year Table (Age 57 → 90)
AgeYear IRA BalanceRoth BalanceHSA Balance IRA DrawRoth DrawHSA Draw MAGIACA?Total Spend
Risk Analysis
Key threats to the plan and how to manage them
Sequence of Returns Risk
A major downturn in the first 3–5 years of retirement is the #1 portfolio killer. Withdrawing during a down market locks in losses.
Mitigation:
· Keep 2–3 years of spending ($240–$360K) in cash/short-term bonds
· Draw from Roth first if market drops >20%
· Delay large IRA draws in bad years; use Roth buffer
· BTC only as reserve — never forced to sell
ACA Rule Changes
ACA subsidies could change in 2026 elections. Enhanced subsidies expire unless renewed.
Mitigation:
· Build $25K/yr healthcare cushion in cash reserves
· HSA funds cover worst-case out-of-pocket
· 8-year bridge ends at Medicare (65) — limited exposure window
· Flexibility to increase IRA draws if subsidies disappear
Inflation Risk
$120K today = $152K in 10 years at 3% inflation. Spending creep compounds fast.
Mitigation:
· Portfolio return (7%) > inflation (3%) = real growth
· Increase IRA draws gradually in later years
· Medicare at 65 removes healthcare inflation pressure
· BTC upside provides inflation hedge
Longevity Risk
Planning to 90 = 33 years of withdrawals. Portfolio must sustain the full bridge.
Mitigation:
· Roth conversions now = tax-free pool later
· SSI at 67 reduces portfolio pressure permanently
· BTC upside = long-tail cushion
· Lake house equity = real asset reserve
Monte Carlo Stress Test — Portfolio Survival Probability
Simulated 500 scenarios with randomized annual returns (mean 7%, std dev 12%). Green = portfolio survives to 90. Red = depleted.